Download 55 Trends Now Shaping the Future of Terrorism by Marvin Cetron, Owen Davies PDF

By Marvin Cetron, Owen Davies

Preface
This research could be seen as a reaction to a choice sounded through Dr. Thomas Mahnken on the Forces Transformation Chairs assembly in February 2007. Dr. Mahnken, Deputy Assistant Secretary of security for coverage making plans, mentioned that the U.S. responds to shocks such a lot effectively whilst it has already well-known and spoke back to the tendencies from which they emerge. it's much less profitable whilst these traits have long past unidentified or while no potent reaction to them has been fixed. One case the place the traits weren't well-known in time used to be the terrorist assaults of September eleven, 2001. It therefore turns into useful, Dr. Mahnken concluded, to boost a method of deciding upon developments and responding to them prior to acute demanding situations emerge.

Forecasting foreign (FI) heartily agreed. FI is without doubt one of the world’s ultimate futurist corporations. It makes a speciality of the research of traits. To our wisdom, we have been the 1st such association to use pattern research to the matter of terrorism. We did so with huge success.
FI all started its paintings on terrorism in 1994, while it controlled the 4th Annual protection world wide scuffling with Terrorism convention for the Pentagon. Its convention record, Terror 2000: the long run Face of Terror, adequately anticipated the increase of Muslim extremism as a resource of terror, the terrorists’ turning out to be flavor for mass bloodletting, using coordinated assaults on far-off objectives, or even an attack at the Pentagon utilizing a hijacked aircraft (omitted on the request of the nation Department). when you consider that then, FI has usually studied terrorist concerns for either executive and personal industry.
In the present file, FI examines the way forward for overseas terrorism. during this attempt, it's been assisted through greater than fifty of the world’s foremost gurus within the fields of antiterrorism, intelligence, protection, and policing. This specialist panel incorporated contributors of the intelligence group, experts from the U.S. executive and army, defense specialists, imagine tank staffers, forecasters, college professors, and native police officers. such a lot got here from the U.S., yet Australia, Canada, eire, New Zealand, Russia, and Switzerland additionally have been represented. numerous contributors selected to stay nameless, due to their delicate positions in executive and the army. One contributor is a personal citizen of whom we all know not anything, retailer that he spoke back to article we had released and supplied a few fascinating thoughts.

This typifies our process during this paintings. now we have attempted to be inclusive, instead of particular. FI’s personal perspectives, and people of convinced specialists, dominate the document, yet a few were included—often within the appendices—specifically simply because they diverge from the mainstream and can offer invaluable insights or novel rules that will no longer come up from extra traditional assets. now we have attempted to overlook not anything that are supposed to a minimum of be thought of. the various rules awarded the following need to be noticeable on the maximum degrees of government.

Key findings from our panel of specialists include:
International terrorism will develop as veterans of the Iraq battle go back to their local lands, educate • sympathizers within the strategies of terror, and unfolded around the world.

Among the Western lands, Britain and France (owing to their huge Muslim populations) and the • usa might be on the maximum probability of assault, in that order. extra assaults at the scale of September 11 are to be anticipated in all 3 international locations over the diversity of 5 to 10 years.

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The “risk premium” built into the price of oil is estimated at $10 to $15 per barrel. • Yet in the long run other factors will tend to depress the price of oil toward its former levels. ––New refineries in Saudi Arabia and other countries scheduled to come on line by 2010 will ease the tight supply-demand balance for oil. ––As seen in Trend 19, new oil supplies are being found or developed in many parts of the world. ––The twenty most-industrialized countries all have at least threemonth supplies of oil in tankers and underground storage.

534 million barrels of oil per day, making it the second-largest user of oil in the world. Its oil demand has grown by 7 percent per year, on average, since 1990. 1 million barrels a day) comes from the Middle East. • However, oil’s share of world energy consumption has begun to decline. It is expected to drop from 40 percent in 1999 to about 37 percent in 2020. Assessment: Nothing is likely to reverse this trend in the next 25 years. Implications: Oil prices now are high enough to provide an incentive to develop new fields, such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the deep fields under the Gulf of Mexico.

Their male counterparts saw pay hikes of only 24 percent over the period. ––In 2004, one-third of American women earned more than their husbands, up from 24 percent in 1987. S. labor force in 2006. ––Among those ages 25 to 54, more than three-fourths either held a job or were looking for one. ––Three-fourths of employed women worked full-time. • Younger generations of women are better educated. ––Fully 58 percent of American college students were women as of 2006. ––Among whites, only 56 percent are female, but 60 percent of African-American college students are women.

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